“The Fed will likely be scrutinizing financial market conditions in coming weeks to judge whether any war relief rally might be enhancing prospects for growth.”
“We expect markets to focus, as usual, on headline hiring and the jobless rate. Whether these figures should be judged according to the usual principles is less clear, however.”
“This forecast unrealistically assumes that discretionary spending will grow only with inflation, that all expiring tax breaks will expire on schedule -- they almost never do -- and that Congress will not enact the prescription drug benefit for Medicare that a House-Senate conference is now debating.”
